Igabanuka ryibiciro bya chip, ninde wishimira rwihishwa?

Ibiciro bya chip byagabanutse, kandi chip itinda kugurisha.Ijwi risa nkaho ridasobanutse ryasabwe nabantu batabarika kuva igice cyambere cyuyu mwaka.Mu gice cya mbere cya 2022, bitewe n’ubushake buke ku isoko rya elegitoroniki y’abaguzi, inganda za chip zigeze gutangiza umuvuduko wo kugabanya ibiciro.Igice cya kabiri cyumwaka, umugambi wongeye kwisubiramo.

Vuba aha, amakuru ya CCTV yatangaje ko nk'ibice bigize sisitemu yo kugenzura ikoranabuhanga, chip ya STMicroelectronics yari imwe mu bicuruzwa bikenerwa cyane mu 2021. Yamanutse igera ku mafaranga 600, igabanuka rya 80%.

Ku bw'amahirwe, igiciro cy'indi chip umwaka ushize cyari gitandukanye inshuro icumi n'uyu mwaka.Igiciro cya chipi kiragereranywa nicy'ingurube, kuzamuka no kugabanuka.Itandukaniro riri hagati yigiciro cyo hejuru nigiciro cyambere cyabanje birakabije.Biravugwa ko ibitangazamakuru byatangaje ko chip ya STMicroelectronics chip ya 600 yuuu izaba ifite igiciro gisanzwe cyamafaranga icumi muri 2020.

Indwara ya chip isa nkaho yarenganye.Igicu cyatwikiriye uruziga rw'ikoranabuhanga umwaka ushize rugiye gucika?Nk’uko ikinyamakuru Bloomberg kibitangaza ngo umubare munini w'amasosiyete akora chip muri iki gihe yemeza ko hazabaho impinduka zikomeye muri iri soko rishyushye mu gihe kirekire kiri imbere, ndetse bamwe bakaba batizera ko inganda zikoresha amashanyarazi zizatangira kugabanuka cyane mu myaka icumi ishize.

Bake barishimye, bake barababaje, kandi igiciro cya chip kirimo avalanching.Usibye guceceka kwinganda, mfite ubwoba ko hari amasoko atabarika muri karnivali.

Kata hasi, ariko ntabwo ari hasi rwose?

Inkangu yibiciro bya chip ntaho itandukaniye no kugabanuka kumikoreshereze yisi ya elegitoroniki.

Birashobora kugaragara muri raporo y’imari ya TSMC iheruka kwerekana ko ubucuruzi bwa terefone, bwigeze gutera inkunga kimwe cya kabiri cy’igihugu, butakiri isoko ryinjiza amafaranga menshi, kandi biteganijwe ko umubare w’ubucuruzi uzakomeza kugabanuka.Kohereza za terefone zigendanwa na PC ntibyabaye byiza nka Mutarama kuva uyu mwaka watangira.Dukurikije imibare y’ubushakashatsi bwa CINNO, mu gice cya mbere cy’umwaka wa 2022, telefone zigendanwa zo mu Bushinwa SoC terminal zoherejwe zigera kuri miliyoni 134, zikamanuka hafi 16.9% umwaka ushize.

Ku bijyanye n’uruhande rwa PC, nk’uko ikigo cy’ubushakashatsi ku isoko cyitwa Mercury Research kibitangaza, mu gihembwe cya kabiri cy’uyu mwaka, ibicuruzwa bitunganyirizwa kuri mudasobwa ku biro byagabanutse kugera ku rwego rwo hasi mu myaka hafi 30, kandi ibicuruzwa byose byatunganijwe byagabanutse cyane ku mwaka ku mwaka kuva 1984.

Ibisabwa hejuru biragabanuka, kumanuka bikomeza kugabanya ibicuruzwa, kandi igiciro gisanzwe gikonjaAriko, twakagombye kumenya ko izo chip hamwe nigiciro cyagabanutse nta ngaruka rusange zifite ugereranije ninganda zose zikoresha igice.Chip yaba yagabanutse mubiciro?Munsi yamakuru ya "slump", haracyari abayikora berekana inzira kandi batangaza ko izamuka ryibiciro.Kurugero, Intel, Qualcomm, Meiman Electronics, Broadcom, nibindi birateganya kuzamura ibiciro kuri bimwe mubicuruzwa byabo bya chip.

Dufashe Intel nk'urugero, nk'uko Nikkei abitangaza, Intel yamenyesheje abakiriya ko igiciro cy'ibicuruzwa bitwara imashanyarazi kiziyongera mu gice cya kabiri cy'umwaka wa 2022. Biteganijwe ko kizamura igiciro cy'ibicuruzwa byinshi nka seriveri nkuru hamwe na mudasobwa ya CPU. na chip ya peripheri.Ukurikije ubwoko, hasi cyane iri mumibare imwe, kandi kwiyongera kwinshi gushobora kugera kuri 10% kugeza kuri 20%.

Chip irazamuka cyangwa ntizamuka?Turashobora kuvuga ko igiciro cyibikoresho bya elegitoroniki byabaguzi cyagabanutse gitunguranye kubera igabanuka ryibisabwa, ariko icyifuzo cya MCUs mubindi bikorwa, nk'imodoka no kugenzura inganda, byatumye ibiciro biri hejuru ya chip bifitanye isano.Kuva mugitangira cyoherejwe na terefone igendanwa idasanzwe, ejo hazaza h’inganda za chip hashyizweho ikimenyetso cyo kugurisha buhoro, ariko mubyukuri,ibura rya chip mu nganda zimwe na zimwe ntirirarangira.

By'umwihariko kuri chipi yimodoka, amakuru yo mu 2022 Ubushinwa Nansha International Integrated Circuit Industry Forum yerekana ko ibicuruzwa bya chip biriho ubu bishobora guhaza 31% byabakora amamodoka ugereranije.Amakuru yatanzwe mukwezi nuko GAC yahuye nikibazo cya 33.000 chip mugihembwe cya kabiri.

Inganda nshya zingufu ziragenda neza, kandi icyifuzo cya chip mugihe kizaza ntigikwiye gusuzugurwa.Biravugwa ko impuzandengo y'imodoka ikeneye gukoresha chip 500, kandi ibinyabiziga bishya bitanga ingufu nyinshi.Umwaka ushize, kugurisha imodoka kwisi kwari hafi miliyoni 81.05, bivuze ko urwego rwose rwinganda zikoresha amamodoka rukeneye chipi miliyari 40.5.

Mubyongeyeho, chip-end zohejuru ziracyari hejuru kurutambiro rwisoko.Ku ruhande rumwe, icyifuzo cya chip hamwe nikoranabuhanga ryateye imbere murwego rwo hejuru rwinganda ntirwigeze rugabanuka.Byari byavuzwe mbere ko chip ya 3nm ya TSMC izakorwa cyane muri Nzeri, kandi Apple izaba umukiriya wa mbere wakoresheje chip ya 3nm ya TSMC.

Biravugwa ko umwaka utaha, harimo progaramu nshya ya A17 hamwe na M3 ikurikirana, Apple izakoresha 3nm ya TSMC.Kurundi ruhande, harabura ikibazo cyibikoresho byogukora cyane, kandi umusaruro wa 3nm na 2nm wateye imbere uteganijwe kuba muke, kandi hashobora kubaho icyuho cyo gutanga 10% kugeza kuri 20% muri 2024-2025.

Nkigisubizo, igiciro ntigishobora kugabanuka.Ibimenyetso bitandukanye bitubwira ko chip zigwa umwe umwe, kandi inganda ntizihari byoroshye nkuko bigaragara.

Imipira y'abaguzi igwa nabi?

Uruhande rumwe rwarapfuye, urundi ruhande rwateye imbere.

Ibikoresho bya elegitoroniki byabaguzi byanyuze mubihe byiza cyane mumyaka ibiri ishize.Kugabanuka kurwego rwo gukoresha ibikoresho bya elegitoronike, amaherezo baramanutse bava ku gicaniro.Kugeza ubu, amasosiyete menshi ya chip ahugiye mu guhindura ubucuruzi bwabo, kuva ku baguzi kugera mu modoka n’imashini.TSMC yashyize ku isoko isoko ryimodoka nkumushinga wibanze mumyaka mike iri imbere.Biravugwa ko kuruhande rwumugabane, ubucuruzi bwimodoka bwabakinnyi ba MCU bo murugo nka Zhaoyi Innovation, Zhongying Electronics, na Micro Semiconductor yo mubushinwa nabwo buragenda bugaragara.

By'umwihariko, ibicuruzwa bya mbere bya Zhaoyi byo mu rwego rwa MCU byinjiye mu cyiciro cy’ibizamini by’abakiriya muri Werurwe, kandi biteganijwe ko bizagera ku musaruro rusange muri uyu mwaka;Zhongying Electronics ikoreshwa cyane cyane mugice cyo kugenzura umubiri MCU, kandi biteganijwe ko izafatwa hagati yumwaka.Inyuma;Ubushinwa Microelectronics bwerekanye ko bwiyemeje guteza imbere imashini zo mu rwego rwa moteri muri prospectus.IPO yayo irateganya gukusanya miliyoni 729 Yuan, muri yo miliyoni 283 zamafaranga azakoreshwa mu bushakashatsi bwakozwe na chip yo mu rwego rw’imodoka.

Ibi birumvikana.Nyuma ya byose, igipimo cyaho cyo kubara ibinyabiziga byo mu gihugu no kugenzura imashini biri munsi ya 1%, igipimo cy’ibikoresho bya sensor kiri munsi ya 4%, naho igipimo cy’ibice by’amashanyarazi, kwibuka, n’itumanaho ni 8%, 8%, na 3%.Gukora ibinyabiziga bishya byimbere mu gihugu biriyongera, kandi urusobe rwibinyabuzima byose byubwenge, harimo no gutwara ibinyabiziga byigenga, bizanatwara ibyuma byinshi byifashishwa mu cyiciro cya nyuma.

Kandi bizagora bite gukomeza kwizirika ku baguzi?

Mbere, byavuzwe ko Samsung yahagaritse by'agateganyo kugura ibice byose byubucuruzi birimo paneli, terefone zigendanwa hamwe na chip yo kwibuka, ndetse n’abakora inganda nyinshi zo muri Koreya bafata icyemezo cyo kugabanya ibiciro hejuru ya 5% kugirango bagurishe.Ikoranabuhanga rya Nuvoton, ryibanda ku bikoresho bya elegitoroniki by’abaguzi, naryo ryiyongereyeho inyungu zirenga inshuro 5.5 umwaka ushize, hamwe n’inyungu NT $ 7.27 kuri buri mugabane.Muri Mata na Gicurasi uyu mwaka, imikorere yabaye myiza, aho amafaranga yagabanutseho 2,18% na 3.04%.

Umuntu arashobora kudasobanura byinshi, ariko amakuru yumuyaga yerekana ko guhera ku ya 9 Gicurasi, amasosiyete 126 ya semiconductor ku isi yose yatangaje raporo y’imari y’igihembwe cya mbere cy’umwaka wa 2022, muri bo 16 bakaba baragabanutse ku mwaka ku mwaka inyungu zunguka cyangwa ndetse no gutakaza.Imipira y'abaguzi iragenda igabanuka vuba, kandi ibinyabiziga no kugenzura inganda byahindutse ingingo ishakisha inyungu ku isoko rya chip.

Ariko mubyukuri ibintu biroroshye nkuko bigaragara?

By'umwihariko kuri bamwe mubakora chip yo murugo, kuva mumashanyarazi ya elegitoroniki mukibuga cyimodoka birenze kure ibyo ubushyuhe bwisoko bushobora gufata umwanzuro.Mbere ya byose, chip zo murugo zigomba kugira epfo na ruguru, kandi umurima ukoreshwa uri ku mwanya wa mbere, bingana na 27%.Nubwo urebye ku isi, isoko ryimbere mu gihugu naryo soko rinini cyane.Imibare irerekana ko mu 2021, kugurisha igice cya kabiri ku isoko ry’umugabane w’Ubushinwa bizagera kuri miliyari 29.62 z’amadolari y’Amerika, umwaka ushize wiyongereyeho 58%.Nisoko rinini cyane ku isi ku isoko, rikaba rifite 28.9% by’igurishwa ry’amashanyarazi ku isi..

Icya kabiri, inganda za chip ubwazo zifite inyungu nyinshi mubice bya terefone zigendanwa na 5G.Dufashe TSMC nk'urugero,

Ibicuruzwa bya TSMC bingana na 70% by isoko ryimodoka MCU, ariko mumwaka wa 2020′ibyinjira byinjira, umusanzu wibikoresho byimodoka bingana na 3.31%.Kugeza Q1 2022, Smartphone ya TSMC hamwe nimirima ikora mudasobwa ikora neza izinjiza 40% na 41% byinjiza byinjiza, mugihe IoT, amamodoka, DCE, nabandi bazaba bangana na 8%, 5%, 3%, na 3 %.

Hano harakenewe bike, ariko inyungu iracyahari, kandi ni ikibazo.Iki nicyo kintu kibangamiye cyane isoko rya semiconductor.

Nyuma yo kuzamuka, abaguzi karnivali?

Iyo igiciro cya chip gihindagurika, abaguzi barishimye cyane.Terefone zigendanwa, imodoka ndetse nibikoresho byurugo byubwenge byahindutse ahantu hateganijwe kubakiriya ba karnivali nyuma yuko ibiciro bya chip bigabanutse, cyane cyane terefone zigendanwa.Ntibyatinze nyuma yibiciro bya chip avalanche, abantu bamwe basakuje kurubuga rusange kugirango bagure terefone zigendanwa kugirango babone amafaranga mugice cya kabiri cyuyu mwaka.

Ako kanya nyuma yibyo, igiciro cyingufu nshya, igiciro cyibicuruzwa bya elegitoroniki, igiciro cyibikoresho byo murugo… nibindi byaje bikurikirana.Nubwo bimeze bityo ariko, nta cyerekezo kigaragara cyo kumenya niba hazabaho igabanuka ry’ibiciro bijyanye n’ibicuruzwa, ariko mvugishije ukuri, iyi ntera yo kugabanya ibiciro bya chip ntabwo izatera igabanuka ry’ibiciro ku isoko ry’umuguzi.

Reka tubanze turebe umurongo wa terefone igendanwa cyane.Mu myaka yashize, abakora terefone zigendanwa bazamuye ibiciro bidahagarara.Hasi-iherezo iracecetse, iherezo-rirenga, kandi birashoboka ko ibiciro byagabanuka mugihe gito ni bike cyane.Byongeye kandi, inyungu nini y’abakora telefone zigendanwa zo mu gihugu ntizabaye nyinshi.Mbere, mu nama y'abashinzwe iterambere rya Huawei, Yang Haisong, visi perezida w’ishami rishinzwe porogaramu zikoresha ubucuruzi bwa Huawei, yavuze ko inyungu z’abakora telefone zigendanwa mu Bushinwa ari mbi, kandi umugabane w’isoko rya terefone igendanwa ukaba urenga kimwe cya kabiri, ariko hafi 10% gusa.inyungu.

Mubyongeyeho, chip yagabanutse rwose, ariko ibiciro byibindi bice ntabwo bifite ikinyabupfura cyane, nka sensor na ecran.Moderi yo murwego rwohejuru iragenda irushaho kwiyongera, kandi abakora terefone zigendanwa mubisanzwe basabwa cyane kumurongo wo gutanga.Biravugwa ko OPPO, Xiaomi Yigeze gukora sensor yihariye kuri Sony na Samsung.

Kubera iyo mpamvu, igiciro cya terefone zigendanwa nticyiyongera, bikaba umugisha kubakoresha.

Urebye ingufu nshya, imiyoboro nyamukuru yagabanije ibiciro iki gihe ntabwo iri mubikorwa byo gukora imodoka.Ikirenze ibyo, mu gice cya mbere cy'umwaka, izamuka ry'ibiciro ry’imodoka nshya zikora imodoka ntizigeze zihinduka, kandi ryazamutse kandi kenshi.Impamvu zibyihishe inyuma ntabwo zose ziterwa na chip.ibyago.Ibiciro byibikoresho byinshi birazamuka, kandi ibiciro bya nikel, ibyuma, na aluminium, harimo na electrode nziza kandi mbi, bizamuka gusa, kandi ibiciro bya bateri bikomeza kuba hejuru.Ikigaragara ni uko ibyo bintu bidashobora kuryozwa chip yonyine.

Birumvikana ko bidashoboka kubona chip igaruka muruziga rukora imodoka.Kuva muri uyu mwaka, ibiciro bya LED itanga urumuri hamwe na chip ya shoferi byagabanutseho 30% -40%, nta gushidikanya ko bizagira uruhare runini mu kugabanya ibiciro by’imodoka zizakurikiraho ba nyir'imodoka..

Usibye telefone zigendanwa, chipi yabaguzi igira ingaruka zikomeye kubikoresho byo murugo byubwenge nka konderasi na firigo.Icyifuzo cya MCUs ku bicuruzwa bitatu by’ingenzi by’abazungu mu Bushinwa mu byukuri ntabwo kiri hasi, kiva kuri miliyoni 570 muri 2017 kigera kuri miliyoni zirenga 700 mu 2022, muri byo MCU ikonjesha ikirere MCU irenga 60%.

Nyamara, chip zikoreshwa mumurima wubwenge murugo ahanini ni chip-end yo hasi hamwe nibikorwa byo gusubira inyuma, bikaba bitandukanye cyane nibikorwa byinganda zateye imbere nka 3nm na 7nm, mubisanzwe birenze 28nm cyangwa 45nm.Urabizi, iyi chip ntabwo iri hejuru mubiciro byigice bitewe nibikoresho bya tekinike biri hasi hamwe nibisabwa mugari.

Ku masosiyete akoresha ibikoresho byo mu rugo, tekinoroji yo hasi bivuze ko bashobora no kugera ku kwihaza.Muri 2017, hashyizweho ishami rishinzwe amashanyarazi ya Gree;muri 2018, Konka yatangaje ko hashyizweho ku mugaragaro ishami ry’ikoranabuhanga rya semiconductor;muri 2018, Midea yatangaje ko yinjiye mu gukora chip kandi ishinga uruganda rwa Meiren Semiconductor.Muri Mutarama 2021, hashyizweho Meiken Semiconductor Technology Co., Ltd.Kugeza ubu, igipimo ngarukamwaka cy’ibicuruzwa bya MCU ni hafi miliyoni 10.

Dukurikije imibare ituzuye, amasosiyete menshi asanzwe akoresha ibikoresho byo murugo, harimo TCL, Konka, Skyworth, na Haier, yamaze kohereza mumashanyarazi.Muyandi magambo, uyu murima ntubuzwa na chip na gato.

Hasi, cyangwa hasi?Igabanywa ryibiciro bya chip birasa nkibisasu bitari byo, kandi ababikora bo hejuru ntibishimiye igihe, kereka abaguzi.